Rough Estimation

“Most people overestimate what they can do in one year and underestimate what they can do in ten years.”

-Bill Gates

I’ve seen various versions of this statement credited to multiple people.  I like it otherwise I wouldn’t be so aware of its varieties. 

The Impactmaker Movement is tough of which to be a part.  It’s not for the feint of heart or for the complacent.  If you’re a return reader to the E-Impact Blog, you likely don’t characterize either of those.  

Unfortunately, people who are willing to take on challenges and address dire situations often expect immediate results.  We feed right into the immediate desires of the day. 

Urgency

Why is it unfortunate that we have urgency?

We overestimate what can be done in the short term.  We’re problem solvers.  We’ve fixed things before and assume that we will again and more efficiently.  

How much red (urgency) is on your calendar?

You could certainly argue that confidence is good but what happens when we set our team up for disappointment?  

You can’t expect everyone to think exactly like you and even more importantly, you can’t assume that your way of thinking is.  

Listen to Rick Chromey in Speaking of Impact episode 67 talk about “leading from the edge” and the “starship” concept.  These are part of a mindset that acknowledges a leader should not be the center of his or her operation.  In fact, they should be on the edge.  They serve an important purpose and have a unique skillset to execute but they are just one member of the team.  Everyone is important to the function of the team.

With Rick’s concept in mind, consider how to display the urgency to push things forward without pushing beyond what others can handle.

Please consider the urgency of the issue you are trying to address and not the desired immediacy of technology and social media.

Estimation

-a rough calculation of the value, number, quantity, or extent of something.

This is the definition of estimation.  It is by nature “rough” or not completely accurate.  

Frankly, I hate generalities and inconclusive evidence. 

Part of estimation is playing the comparison game.  You start the process of estimation by finding a similar scenario to provide a starting point.  

For example; If I were to start a new e-commerce business selling t-shirts, I would look for data related to another company doing the same thing.  Immediately, I am going to compare what they’ve done to what I think I can and it’s likely that throughout the period of time I observed, I’ll continue to do the same.

If the established t-shirt company reported selling one thousand shirts in the first year, I will tie much of my companies worth to that number.  Underperforming one thousand would be disappointing and over performing it would be encouraging.  

The main problem with this is the two companies are different and can have different goals.  In addition, there are far too many variables to have any accurate predictions.

Beyond comparisons, estimations also become less accurate the longer the given period of time.  This leads to a shortening of time frames in order to promote accuracy.  See E-Impact 56 for the importance of the opposite -  delaying gratification.

Longer is Better

Here’s where I prove myself as a blogger (or maybe show how scatterbrained I am).  I spent the first third of the entry talking about urgency, immediacy, and accuracy.  Forget all of that.

If nothing else, we must overcompensate for what we think we can do in the long term as a response to under compensating for what we think we can do in the short term.

Impact work is not good if it’s not sustainable.  I’ve mentioned my experiences with Habitat for Humanity’s Global Village.  You can find a whole chapter dedicated to one of them in my book, Personal Finance in a Public World.  

I appreciate Habitat’s work because not only do they change families’ lives in the short term (with a new home) but they also teach and build sustainable systems for entire communities to benefit from generationally.   I always try to keep this in mind when working on even the simplest of impact projects.  

It’s better to make a small difference that lasts a lifetime than a huge difference that fades quickly.

Personal Growth

I believe that part of impactmaking, generosity, giving, and philanthropy is also personal growth. It’s an interesting dichotomy because the above terms are related to selflessness so it’s not a simple theoretical transition.  

I’ve never been one to fear waxing poetic or talking philosophy.  

Speaking of philosophy, have you thought about what your impact philosophy is?

The Impactmaker Movement exists so that purpose driven people can use their gifts and skills to make the world a better place.  Through their efforts, impactmakers will execute their purpose and find the ultimate fulfillment in their lives.  

Your philosophy will likely have related language.  The point is that humans are uniquely created to support each other and selfless acts are the best way to foster personal growth.  

Never forget how your life will benefit whence benefiting the lives of others.

Your Potential

There are two important reasons for us to consider Bill Gates’ quote from above.  

The first is the direct effect that our estimations have on our performance.  This applies to family, business, and positive impact.  

Your estimations (and those related comparisons) are part of “business” planning and measuring progress.  Whatever area of life you are dealing in, the forces mentioned above will push you towards a short term focus when a long term focus is the more advisable approach.  

Use this concept to lead your planning estimations and focus on your organization’s (or team’s or family’s) potential for sustainable effectiveness.  Gates refers to a decade period but each situation should include its own timeframe.  

I’m just a couple days removed from my trip to the Lutheran Church Missouri Synod National Youth Gathering.  The next one will be in three years (in New Orleans).  The planning team for that event has already begun preparations and a ten year period is not appropriate.  Three years is the long term approach.  This is why there are various versions of the quote and people who have altered it.  

The second reason to consider the quote is related to your own personal effectiveness.  It may seem counterintuitive but your own long term focus will actually improve your short term effectiveness.  

What are your best habits?

When you focus on consistent, good habits, you develop new skills and hone those you already have.

I believe that repeated practice builds skills better than any short term burst of effort or success.  There are urgent times (emergencies, deadlines, etc.) that require extreme effort or overworking but they are not sustainable and the goals are often completion and not improvement.  

You are in the best position to learn and improve when the proper long term planning has been done.  With that being said, don’t get discouraged and underestimate what you can do in the long run.  

I can compare your long term potential to compounding investment returns.  I don’t talk about money and economics too much in this blog but it’s a great analogy here.  

When investing, early compounding returns are extremely powerful because the additional capital earned in the beginning can work for you that much longer.  

Concepts like Dollar Cost Averaging and “Time IN the market over TimING the market” are effective because given the high statical chance that the market rises over the long term, it’s better to be “in” more than out.

I will compare your skills and effectiveness to the markets.  It’s a sheer result of existence that as time passes, you will improve.  Outside of catastrophic injury or illness, I would say it’s not even a statistical chance.  It’s guaranteed that you’ll be better.  

Imagine if I could say that about investments!  I’d be good at my job then, haha.

Decades

Let’s face it.  A decade is a long time but I’ve been married for one and a half.  Time flies.

If you go back and review the October 13, 2020 E-Impact Blog Entry, you’ll see that I know a bit about Abraham Lincoln and the Gettysburg Address.  He started the famous speech with “Four score and seven years ago…”.

A score is twenty years - so Abe was referring to a period of eighty-seven years.  I’m not sure what the United States’ founding fathers were thinking but I bet they had a hope that America would be around at that point (and improving).   

I would say if you’re waiting eighty-seven years for your impact project to be effective, you either need to narrow your scope or find the fountain of youth.  However, the address reminds me that we are often surprised when we look back over a long period of time to see what has been accomplished.  

Look a score back (if you’ve been around that long) and see what you’ve accomplished.  What have you improved at?  How are you better equipped as an impactmaker?

My guarantee from the last section tells me that you have grown a lot.  Compare this with what you can accomplish in the next year. It’s likely more than the first year of that score, but it’s not what you can in the full twenty years.  

You and your team will be more successful if you consider what you can accomplish with long term sustainable habits.  You will be investing additional skills in the short term that will benefit you for the rest of your life with the same long term sustainable habits.  

Don’t place too much value in the rest of this year.  Give yourself permission to learn and produce for the next decade.

Thanks, Bill.  It’s no wonder Microsoft is a leader in modern technology for two score and seven years.